Asking around regarding the Jan CAL bid yields a spectrum of answers on what, if anything the bid will contain. Perhaps a CAL person more familiar can elaborate more expertly, however from what I've heard the bid reach is not fixed. It may or may not encompass Age 65'rs. A often posed question what will happen with sick time in 2012. That remains a issue for some and others a non event...
With as tight as the airlines are run on pilot staffing these days and the wavering economy and fickle consumer, I wouldn't expect anything much from a Jan bid. There are aircraft deliveries to account for but it seems UniCal is committed to flat or slightly reduced capacity over the longer term, so I would expect as new gear comes in on the CAL side, the older gear gets parked on the United side.
The driving force of recalls or new hires at UniCal is demand. For now, the airlines, especially now that AMR is crashing, are locked into their cartel effect on market control over the consumer. However, as time has proven most often, cartels fall apart as demand rises to the point where one or more splinter from the group and go after increased revenue (and hopefully profitability!) through first mover advantage. This demand I don't believe is going to rear it's adulterous self until the debt situation in the Western world is well taken care of and the emerging economies feel comfortable going full throttle with global demand assured. Till then, the airlines in the US will simmer slowly and further make attempts to get grip on their costs and customers.
The good news is I think it will hit all at once and the progress in Europe is encouraging. The 2012 election in the US should be the kickoff as hopefully some side might take control and this malaise Americans find themselves in with regards to political leadership will hopefully end.
If you want you phone to start ringing from recruiters or recall/new hire people I don't think it will happen till then. Even with Age 65, unless the demand is greater than it is now the airlines will trim and trim and trim until they are absolutely forced to hire. In fact, I'm not hopeful for the long run quality of life and income as a US airline pilot until well into the next contract cycle around 2018-2020. It is then that large contract gains will be made and pilots will be firmly in the demand driving seat. If I was a young buck starting out in this silly profession, I'd be trying my damnedest to get on at place like Emirates, Cathay, Singapore or a decent China outfit.
Unless US airlines significantly get their labor back on board with competing (Delta's done a fair job at that) globally these emerging airlines will make further in roads with a far superior product in the minds of traditional US airline users who have become incensed by their perception of "nickel and diming". If they start offering student loan payoffs, commutable schedules or US bases you'll see an exodus that will make you head spin from the regionals and weaker national and legacy carriers. I'd love to see the legacies here revamp, rehire and recall and be a part of making that happen but the drumbeat of cost cutting and industry consolidation is pushing the consumer into the arms of these foreign behemoths, who by the way are rapidly building networks business fliers need. It's not to late to turn the ship around, but the US carriers need to get the slash and burn over with and get back on the horse with customers and they'll absolutely need their labor on board to do that.
Fortunately the Age 65 numbers are very real, so probably by 2015-16 you'll have a pick of places to go, especially in Asia.
Just my .02, blow it apart if you want...
With as tight as the airlines are run on pilot staffing these days and the wavering economy and fickle consumer, I wouldn't expect anything much from a Jan bid. There are aircraft deliveries to account for but it seems UniCal is committed to flat or slightly reduced capacity over the longer term, so I would expect as new gear comes in on the CAL side, the older gear gets parked on the United side.
The driving force of recalls or new hires at UniCal is demand. For now, the airlines, especially now that AMR is crashing, are locked into their cartel effect on market control over the consumer. However, as time has proven most often, cartels fall apart as demand rises to the point where one or more splinter from the group and go after increased revenue (and hopefully profitability!) through first mover advantage. This demand I don't believe is going to rear it's adulterous self until the debt situation in the Western world is well taken care of and the emerging economies feel comfortable going full throttle with global demand assured. Till then, the airlines in the US will simmer slowly and further make attempts to get grip on their costs and customers.
The good news is I think it will hit all at once and the progress in Europe is encouraging. The 2012 election in the US should be the kickoff as hopefully some side might take control and this malaise Americans find themselves in with regards to political leadership will hopefully end.
If you want you phone to start ringing from recruiters or recall/new hire people I don't think it will happen till then. Even with Age 65, unless the demand is greater than it is now the airlines will trim and trim and trim until they are absolutely forced to hire. In fact, I'm not hopeful for the long run quality of life and income as a US airline pilot until well into the next contract cycle around 2018-2020. It is then that large contract gains will be made and pilots will be firmly in the demand driving seat. If I was a young buck starting out in this silly profession, I'd be trying my damnedest to get on at place like Emirates, Cathay, Singapore or a decent China outfit.
Unless US airlines significantly get their labor back on board with competing (Delta's done a fair job at that) globally these emerging airlines will make further in roads with a far superior product in the minds of traditional US airline users who have become incensed by their perception of "nickel and diming". If they start offering student loan payoffs, commutable schedules or US bases you'll see an exodus that will make you head spin from the regionals and weaker national and legacy carriers. I'd love to see the legacies here revamp, rehire and recall and be a part of making that happen but the drumbeat of cost cutting and industry consolidation is pushing the consumer into the arms of these foreign behemoths, who by the way are rapidly building networks business fliers need. It's not to late to turn the ship around, but the US carriers need to get the slash and burn over with and get back on the horse with customers and they'll absolutely need their labor on board to do that.
Fortunately the Age 65 numbers are very real, so probably by 2015-16 you'll have a pick of places to go, especially in Asia.
Just my .02, blow it apart if you want...